Pay changes meaningfully by region — starting wages run from about $23 an hour around Kingston and Belleville to $30 in Toronto and Kitchener–Waterloo, a difference of roughly $14,000 a year on full-time hours.

On demand, BuildForce Canada projects Ontario construction will need to recruit about 126,100 workers by 2035: 92,000 to replace people retiring and 34,100 to meet growth. Even after an expected 98,800 young entrants, the industry could still be short about 27,300 workers. Residential employment is forecast to grow 11% over that period and non-residential 5%.

Conditions won’t be uniform — some trades and regions will be much tighter than others — but the long-run direction is more openings than people to fill them.